U.S. Exports Top $522 Billion, A Record Pace Being Set For 2025

U.S. exports are off to their best-ever start this year, with seven of the top 10 at record levels, according to my analysis of the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data.

Generally not reflected in these statistics, which are through March, are President Trump’s proposed and actual tariffs imposed on the rest of the world, most of which were announced April 2.

Indeed, geopolitics plays an important role in two of the top 10. Both are energy-related, with one growing at a record clip and, conversely, one down more than any other in the top 10.

The two biggest winners through the first quarter are the primary aircraft category, which for the second consecutive year, looks to be dominated by aviation parts rather than Boeing aircraft, and LNG and other natural gases.

The biggest losers are oil and gasoline, both off record highs in 2024, and passenger vehicles, down from the record pace set in 2023.

U.S. exports totaled $522.61 billion through March, the third consecutive year above $500 billion in the first quarter.

Total U.S. imports totaled $948.10 billion – an increase so significant that it is the first year above even $800 billion. Some of this is believed to be tariff avoiding “front-loading,” which would affect not only total trade but the trade deficit.

Total U.S. trade came in at $1.47 trillion.

The U.S. deficit stood at $425.49 billion – an increase similarly so significant that it was the first time it surpassed just $300 billion in the first three months of a year, much less $400 billion. The balance of trade, which rarely moves more than a percentage point or two, is down four percentage points from 2024, with exports accounting for just 36% of all U.S. trade this year.

This post is about the top 10 U.S. exports among the more than 1,200 categories that exist at an intermediate level of Census Bureau data. These 10 accounted for 35.89% of the total, the highest concentration in at least a decade.

While the impact of the proposed and actual tariffs – and the reversals, escalations, pauses and general uncertainty surrounding those tariffs – will likely start to show up in the coming months, this post will serve as a good baseline for their impact.

Here’s a quick look at the top 10:

Aircraft, parts

Exports in the primary aircraft category, historically dominated by expensive aircraft from Boeing, are up 20.59% to $34.32 billion through the first quarter and up more than 100% from the first quarter four years ago. It is the first time the category has ranked on top in the first quarter since 2020.

The category is being led not by Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and Everett, Washington – one or the other of those two has led the nation 18 of the last 22 years – but by what appears to be FedEx and UPS hubs in Memphis, Tenn., and Louisville, Ky., respectively.

It is hard to know for sure because the U.S. Census Bureau obscures data for both the aircraft category by no longer separating jets from parts, and UPS and FedEx shipments out of their respective Customs districts.

Oil

Oil ranks second after two years atop the rankings. Oil exports are down 9.65% from the record pace of 2024 but still up more than 100% from four years ago, much like the aviation category. No other top 10 export is down more, when compared to the same three-month period in the previous year. Tonnage is down less than 6%, reflecting a decline in oil prices.

Exports to China are down 72.35% since the first quarter of 2018, when Trump first imposed tariffs on Chinese imports and Xi Jinping retaliated with tariffs against oil, passenger vehicles, soybeans and other commodities. China ranked first among export partners at the time; this year it ranks 15th, down from No. 5. It ranked second, seventh, first and fifth during President Biden’s time in office.

Refined petroleum

The third-ranked export is gasoline and other refined petroleum products, down 7.33% to $26.22 billion through March. Tonnage is down slightly less, at 6.43%, according to the Census Bureau data, suggesting a decline in price slightly less than that of oil.

LNG

The fourth-ranked export through the first quarter is LNG and other natural gases, increasing $5.70 billion – second only to the aviation category among all U.S. exports –- $21.79 billion, a 35.46% gain.

Of the three petroleum-related exports, it is the only one registering an increase through the first quarter. LNG exports received a big boost from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent decision by Germany and other European nations to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas. Exports to Germany since 2022 have increased 5.81 million percent – from $15,832 to $919.69 million. It is now the eight-largest buyer of U.S. natural gases like LNG, up from No. 74.

Passenger vehicles

The fifth-ranked export, one of four not at a record level, is the passenger vehicle category. While the $13.83 billion total is the third-highest total on record through the first quarter, it is slightly below the 2024 total, down 6%, and the record 2023 total.

The two biggest points of departure from U.S. soil are the Detroit Ambassador Bridge, which handles mostly U.S. brands (Ford, GM, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep); the Port of Brunswick, Ga., which handled a wide range of European (Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Volvo, Porsche) and Asian (Kia, Hyundai, Mitsubishi)

The vehicles exported to China remain down 72.60% from the first quarter of 2018, when Trump began the trade war with China and it retaliated.

E-commerce, etc.

The sixth-ranked export from the United States in the first quarter of 2025 is something the Census Bureau calls “low-value shipments,” which registered a 1.09% increase to $13.67 billion. This is generally courier shipments and e-commerce. About 45% go to USMCA partners Canada and Mexico, suggesting a connection to industries like automotive that require assembly from parts shipped “just in time” in addition to traditional e-commerce.

The category is attracting attention on the import side because Chinese Shein and Temu have skirted paying tariffs by keeping the value of their imports under the level set by de minimis rules.

Vaccines, plasma

The seventh-ranked export is a broad category that includes vaccines, plasma and other blood “fractions,” such as white-blood cells. The category grew 6.06% when compared to the first three months of 2024, an increase of $768.02 million.

Germany, the Netherlands and China are the big three markets for these exports. Unlike the case of oil and cars, exports to China have grown massively since Trump started the trade war in 2018, up 652.17%. The vast majority are immunology drugs.

Computer chips

The eighth-ranked export is computer chips, an industry that former President Joe Biden sought to begin returning to the United States through massive incentives in the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act, one that Trump has sought to repeal, calling it a “horrible, horrible thing,” suggesting the money would be better used to reduce government debt.

The total through March, $13.30 billion, was a 27.56% increase. Exports to China have doubled since Trump began the trade war in 2018. Mexico and China dominate this export, accounting for more than 45% the last six years.

Computers

The ninth-ranked export was computers, which registered the largest percentage gain of any top 10 commodity at 46.40%, when compared to the first quarter of 2024. The $11.85 billion total was the first time computer exports topped $10 billion through March.

Computer exports is also the only top 10 export that was not in the top 10 at this time last year. Computer exports ranked 13th. Pushed out of the top 10 was the category of motor vehicle parts, which slipped from eighth to 11th.

The big increase is in shipments to Taiwan, which now trails only Mexico and Canada as buyers of U.S. computers, according to first quarter data. Since Trump imposed wide-ranging tariffs on China in 2018, during his first term, and China retaliated, exports to the island nation sitting right off China’s coast, have increased 1,492%. From last year alone, the increase is 314.83%.

Imports to China, meanwhile, are down 39.53% since the onset of the trade war in 2018, when comparing first-quarter figures. China, which had ranked third as a buyer of U.S. computers, now ranks No. 16.

Gold

The value of U.S. exports of gold, which, figurately speaking, is mercurial, topped $10 billion in the first quarter for the first time. The total, $11.55 billion, was a 19.31% increase over the same three months of 2024 and a 73.57% increase over the first quarter of 2023.

The price of gold tends to move when markets get nervous – and so does the gold. The price moves upward. The gold tends to move eastward, at least from the United States. Switzerland and the United Kingdom dominate the export markets, accounting for 88.31% this year and a majority every year since 2018. JFK International continues to dominate those exports.

The question for U.S. exports remains: What will come of Trump’s trade war with the world? Is the export and import boom in large part an effort to get in and out of the United States during a pause in the trade war? Would inflation, should it come, take the wind out of the sails of the U.S. and global economies? Time, and the data for the next few months, will tell.